With the tragic events unfolding in Ukraine and with thought for the victims of this terrible conflict, we have compiled some points made by recent asset manager commentaries to give you some perspective. This is for your information only and should not be construed as investment advice.
 

• The duration of the conflict is impossible to predict but it should not stray beyond Ukraine. Should it enter NATO territory, the consequences become potentially much more serious. 
• Assuming it remains within Ukraine, the direct economic impact globally should be limited as Ukraine is a small economy and Russia’s is smaller than the UK. The sanctions imposed on Russia will likely be very damaging to their economy.
• This conflict has shaken stock markets in a predictable pattern. Oil and gas prices have surged, and safe-haven assets like the US dollar, government bonds and gold have risen.
• Russia has experienced the steepest stock market falls, but in developed markets the falls have been relatively modest, with the US holding up better than Europe given the large dependence on Russian gas in the Eurozone.
• The West (particularly Europe) could take a bigger economic hit in the short to medium term, with higher energy prices, loss of business with Russia, and loss of corporate and consumer confidence.
• With the EU’s dependence on Russian gas and oil, a suspension of supplies would affect economic growth in Europe. The US is largely insulated as it is self-sufficient.
• If the conflict remains within Ukraine, it should not cause a major bear market, but rather a short-term shock. Volatility and sharp falls remain possible, but markets had already discounted some of the fears, and had been falling for several weeks prior. 
• Once the conflict is over, volatility should subside. Global growth may then slow significantly due to higher energy prices but may bring the current imbalance of supply/demand back into kilter.

• The immediate impact could be inflation due to energy prices compounding the post-Covid inflationary impact of strong demand and disrupted supply chains.
• Geopolitical events are deeply worrying for investors, but perspective is required. The humanitarian cost is appalling, but wars always end. It comes at a time when the global economy is recovering from the pandemic and while higher energy prices could cause short-term issues, the broader impact should hopefully be limited.
• A secondary effect is that central bank rate hike expectations may be dampened. This is a significant change as many were worrying that rate hikes may be higher than expected. Slower rate hikes could support equity markets in the medium term. 

In Summary:
The US economy is more resilient than Europe, not only because it is self-sustaining in energy, but because the US consumer is healthier financially. Money dished out in the pandemic is still largely unspent, helping consumers cope with rising prices. This is not the case in Europe. China is also resilient, as the source of most supply chains with low inflation. Other Asian countries could also benefit. Of course, US stock markets are dragged down by the conflict but not as deeply as Europe.

It is vital to retain a blend of asset classes in your portfolio, including lower risk bonds and cash as well as equity-based funds. We also believe the long-term investor should not panic-sell in a market dip which could be brief. Unless the war goes beyond Ukraine, markets are expected to recover with time. Obviously, the situation can change daily, making it more important to simply sit tight. 

Contact us here if you wish to discuss you personal portfolio positioning at this time.

This blog post is designed to inform British-domiciled expatriates and those returning to (or connected with) the UK of the recent changes in the Autumn budget. The following are some key points:

• Tax rates for Income Tax, Capital Gain Tax (CGT) or Inheritance Tax (IHT) remained unchanged.  
• The personal income tax allowance; basic rate (£12,570), and higher rate limits (£37,700 & £150,000) have been frozen until April 2026. This means there should be an increase in Government tax receipts.
• Similarly, the IHT nil rate band, CGT annual exemption, and pension lifetime allowance are frozen until April 2026, should see an increase in tax receipts.
• The CGT reporting and payment window following the sale of UK residential property has been extended from 30 to 60 days. The change comes into effect for sales on or after 27 October 2021.

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) have recently revealed that IHT receipts from April to September 2021 were £3.1billion, £700million higher than in the same period a year earlier. 

HMRC have also been given more powers to clamp down on mass-market tax scheme avoidance promoters. The changes will contain four measures intended to make it difficult or impossible for organizations to promote these schemes.
 
One potential way to plan for UK inheritance tax mitigation is the use of accepted trust structures which hold client assets and are not viewed as being tax avoidance schemes by HMRC. Although these may be effective in the mitigation of UK inheritance tax, they may not act similarly in other jurisdictions where an individual's estate may be subject to local estate duties.

We are all living through a tumultuous period as the effects of the global pandemic really begin to have an impact. However one of those effects is not all that bad, people have been saving more money than they were before COVID. So the question now is, should we save or spend?

It is quite understandable people are reticent to spend or invest savings when their job security may remain uncertain, and the old adage of always ensuring a sufficient emergency fund in the bank still rings true. However if you are now sitting on a cash pile in excess of 6 months' normal spending, your money may be under-employed.

In order to prop up economies, governments throughout the world have been printing money to support companies and individuals alike. However that comes at a cost, and that is usually inflation. Already, we are seeing signs of price increases on common goods and services on a global basis.

For example in the UK, the current rate of inflation is 3.2% whereas cash interest rates lag far behind at only 0.1%. In other words, the value of people's cash is being eroded in real terms by 3.1% per year. To illustrate, had you put GBP1,000 in a savings account 10 years ago, its purchasing power today would only be GBP877. Over a similar period, if you had invested GBP1,000 in a relatively conservative portfolio,  its value would be GBP1,400 today, even after accounting for inflation.

Most of us know that over the long-term, an investment in equity-based assets like a carefully selected basket of stocks and mutual funds is much more likely to make higher returns than cash, albeit that it comes with a risk premium.

The markets have raced ahead strongly since the panic of the initial COVID outbreak and many investors are worried about a looming correction in stock markets. It is not an unfounded concern which is why we might recommend a 'phased investment strategy' if an investor has excess cash to invest. This means gradually releasing your cash in smaller portions over 12 months or so to greatly reduce the risk of adverse market timing, and average out market prices.

So the advice would be, ensure you have an adequate emergency fund, perhaps pay down some debts which attract high interest, and invest the excess to beat inflation and make your money grow in real terms.           

As you probably know from your own experience making an international transfer at Japanese banks can be extremely painful and will typically involve you visiting the bank within your lunch hour, filling out an overly detailed form, paying 4,000 yen or more in transfer fees and worst of all, being given an unfavorable exchange rate to boot.
 
But thanks to fintech companies such as Wise and Revolut there are now cheaper and faster solutions which allow you to fund your overseas investment accounts with just a few clicks and no hidden fees.
 
Wise (formerly known as TransferWise) is a UK fintech company with a global outreach which has been providing its foreign exchange service in Japan since 2016. You might have already used their services. Revolut is another UK fintech company which launched its service in Japan in August 2020 and competes in the same space.
 
Wise and Revolut are using an innovative way to transfer money from one country to another. They do not move money cross-border. For example, if you wish to send JPY to your investment account in the Isle of Man, you transfer the funds locally to their account in Japan. Then they send an equivalent amount in your preferred currency from their Isle of Man bank account to your investment account provider. So, there are two domestic transfers but no international transfer.
 
Of course they charge a fee, but they can be significantly cheaper than those charged by traditional banks. In particular, when sending JPY to bank accounts denominated in a different currency, they use the mid-market exchange rate.
 
Please find below a few comparisons as at June 7th, 2021.
 
Amount received in USD for JPY 100,000
 
Revolut:                    USD 913.35
Wise:                         USD 906.40
Rakuten:                  USD 889.30
Shinsei:                     USD 885.76*
SMBC (Prestia):       USD 873.61*
 
Amount received in USD for JPY 1,000,000
 
Revolut:                      USD 9.122.20
Wise:                           USD 9,073.75
Rakuten:                    USD 9,035.60
Shinsei:                       USD 9,020.56*
SMBC (Prestia):        USD 9,020.27*
 
 
*Amount does not take into account additional bank transfer fees of 4,000 yen +/-.
 
Please note: Payments to/from Wise and Revolut accounts registered in Japan are capped at 1 million yen (or at an equivalent value in other currencies) per transaction due to local regulations. However, if you wish to send more you can simply split your transfers over a period of days. It is also possible to schedule payments.

So how does this work in practice when you want to fund your investment account either with a one-off lump sum or regular contributions? The flowchart below should explain…

​With Wise and Revolut you can open an account and get it approved within 1-3 business days and once your account has been approved you can fund it via local bank transfers. No more frustrated lunch hours spent in a bank!
 
If you already have an investment account through AP Advisers you can more easily fund it by opening a Wise or Revolut account and set up one-off or regular payments. Simply send an email to info@ap-advisers.com and we would be happy to discuss the best solution for you.
 
If you have yet to open an investment account, please contact us here for a free, no-obligation consultation.

Our latest blog extracts a recent article by Michel Perera from Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management, a very popular asset manager among our clients. Here we can read Michel's insights into the prospect of global inflation and the implications this may have for your portfolio.
 
Markets have not been straightforward this year. On the surface, equity indices are positive; underneath, swan-like, there has been a lot of action with large differences in performance between growth sectors (healthcare, technology) and value sectors (energy, materials, financials). This has given the impression of massive drops in certain sectors and the word ‘tantrum’ has been revived from the 2013 ‘taper tantrum’ episode. In 2013, markets were concerned that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would stop buying assets (mostly US Treasury bonds) from the market. As a result, the whole bond market repriced with a ricochet slump in equities. ‘Tantrum’ has therefore come to be associated with a market correction. 

Why are markets concerned about inflation? Current market worries come against the backdrop of fears of surging inflation. But are these worries overdone?

Last year, at this time, the pandemic caused inflation to collapse all over the world, setting a very low comparison threshold for this year’s prices. Inflation is generally measured as the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall over 12 months, hence the starting point matters enormously. Plus, as a result of lockdowns, partial re-openings and supply chain issues, many bottlenecks have emerged which will inevitably cause certain prices to rise. It doesn’t take much more than that for the market to expect soaring inflation - and hence the prospect of the Fed stemming it by raising interest rates.

What is the Fed’s outlook for interest rates and inflation?

While the Fed has steadfastly confirmed that it will not raise interest rates for years (2023 at the earliest), it has not ruled out tapering its asset purchases (at this stage, they think there is enough liquidity in markets and don’t necessarily want to add more), which is why a tantrum is feared. Given that government bond yields have soared this year, from 0.9% to nearly 1.7% for the US 10-year bond (and from 0.19% to 0.82% for the UK 10-year gilt), markets are concerned that the Fed reducing its purchases will mean yields soaring further - and a bigger correction in equities.

Even last week, Fed Chair, Jay Powell, re-stated that interest rates will be on hold for at least two years and that short-term spikes in inflation will be tolerated, as the Fed doesn’t believe that higher prices will stick for long. His explanations have been very clear but nevertheless are not believed by markets who persist in believing that a string of high inflation numbers will trigger higher interest rates much sooner than the Fed indicates.

The Fed’s inflation gauge - the Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Price Index - has been consistently below the Fed’s target of 2% during the whole of the last economic cycle, with a couple of brief exceptions. Chair Powell has announced that, from now on, the inflation target will not be an absolute number but an average number over a long period. Given that Core PCE has lagged its 2% target for 12 years, the Fed is saying it would be willing to wait for a few years with inflation above the 2% target before stepping on the brakes. Once again, markets are unconvinced and look for signs that a spike in prices will cause an interest rate hike soon.

Is the Fed’s interest rate policy likely to be reversed?

It is inevitable that we will see some nosebleed inflation readings in the next few months, but unless they are sustained for the whole year at least, it is unrealistic to expect that the Fed’s interest rate policy will be reversed so soon after announcing it (the last Fed policy lasted 40 years). Will markets pay attention to what the Fed says and does, or will they keep expecting the worst? Eventually, markets will get the message, but there could be some moments of extreme concern caused by inflation tantrums.

What can investors do if there is a market correction due to inflation concerns?

Anyone underinvested may want to consider purchases of risk assets like equities. Why? Simply because we have never seen the current favourable alignment of planets in the investment world:

• Loose monetary policy for years regardless of inflation levels
• The largest level of fiscal stimulus since WWII
• Individual investors sitting on the largest cash balances seen in decades
• Companies also enjoying the healthiest balance sheets in decades
• Vaccines now available to start taking us all out of lockdowns.

If the Fed is not going to raise interest rates, then the backdrop is the most conducive in many economic cycles.

What if inflation does indeed take off?

Of course, investing is not just about having a view, but also about preparing for alternative scenarios. There are several ways to help protect an investment portfolio from rising inflation:

1. Equities are generally the asset class of choice when inflation rises, as companies can generally pass on their costs more easily (with some value sectors likely to benefit most)
2. Inflation-linked bonds can offer better protection from increased inflation
3. Gold and certain commodities (industrial metals, energy) are also generally geared to higher prices. These investments can be woven into a balanced investment portfolio meaning an inflation spike need not be wealth-destroying for investors.

A bull market, where equities are rising and expected to continue rising, has often been said to ‘climb a wall of worry’, as many market participants fear something will go wrong. In this case, it seems that the market is already bent on anticipating tears at the end of a cycle which has only just begun. Markets don’t believe central banks when they say rates are not going to rise soon. Yet, historically, it has paid off to heed their words. ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ is the best-known Wall Street adage. Maybe we should listen more carefully.

By Michel Perera
Chief Investment Officer at Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management

Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The information provided is not to be treated as specific advice. It has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person or entity.

This is not a recommendation to invest or disinvest in any of the companies, funds, themes or sectors mentioned. They are included for illustrative purposes only.

The information contained herein is based on materials and sources deemed to be reliable; however, Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management makes no representation or warranty, either express or implied, to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this information. All stated opinions and estimates in this document are subject to change without notice and Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management is under no obligation to update the information.